手法を比較

	ベイジアンシナリオ分析	深遠な不確実性下における最悪ケースとミニマックス後悔評価を用いた頑健シナリオ分析
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2000s	1950 (foundations); 2003 (modern RDM formulation)
提唱者	Developed iteratively across Bayesian statistics and scenario planning communities; formalized in risk and decision analysis (Aven, Lempert et al., 2000s)	Wald, A. (minimax foundation); Lempert et al. (RDM framework)
種類	Probabilistic hybrid — Bayesian inference integrated with structured scenario analysis	Scenario-based robustness evaluation
原典	Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231.	Wald, A. (1950). Statistical Decision Functions. Wiley, New York.
別名	BSA, Bayesian scenario planning, probabilistic scenario analysis, Bayesian-weighted scenario analysis	RSA, Robust Scenario Planning, Worst-Case Scenario Analysis, Minimax Regret Scenario Analysis
関連	5	5
概要	Bayesian Scenario Analysis (BSA) combines structured scenario planning with Bayesian probability theory, assigning explicit prior probabilities to alternative futures and updating them as new evidence or expert judgments become available. The result is a probability-weighted distribution of outcomes across scenarios rather than a set of equally-weighted or arbitrarily-weighted futures.	Robust Scenario Analysis evaluates a set of candidate strategies across a structured collection of plausible future scenarios and selects the strategy that performs acceptably well — or best in the worst case — regardless of which scenario materializes. It merges scenario planning with robustness criteria such as maximin, minimax regret, or satisficing to support decisions under deep, irreducible uncertainty.