手法を比較

	ベイズ待ち行列シミュレーション	マルコフモデル
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1994	1906
提唱者	Armero, C. & Bayarri, M. J.	Andrei Markov
種類	Bayesian inference + stochastic simulation	Probabilistic state-transition model
原典	Armero, C., & Bayarri, M. J. (1994). Bayesian prediction in M/M/1 queues. Queueing Systems, 15(1–4), 401–417.	Norris, J. R. (1997). Markov Chains. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 9780521633963
別名	BQS, Bayesian Queue Simulation, Bayesian Stochastic Queueing, Bayesian Queuing Analysis	Markov Chain, Discrete-Time Markov Chain, DTMC, Markov Process
関連	6	5
概要	Bayesian Queueing Simulation combines Bayesian statistical inference with stochastic queueing simulation to model waiting-line systems under parameter uncertainty. Instead of treating arrival and service rates as fixed known values, it places prior distributions over them, updates these with observed data to obtain posteriors, and propagates the resulting parameter uncertainty through repeated simulation runs to produce probabilistic predictions of system performance metrics such as queue length, waiting time, and server utilisation.	A Markov Model represents a system as a finite set of states and specifies the probability of moving from one state to another at each time step. By capturing only the current state — not the full history — it enables tractable analysis of complex dynamic processes across health economics, engineering reliability, operations research, and social-science modeling.