手法を比較

	ベイジアン第III相臨床試験	フェーズIII臨床試験
分野	疫学	疫学
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1990s–2000s (widespread application)	1962 (Kefauver-Harris Amendment formalised phased drug development)
提唱者	Donald A. Berry; David J. Spiegelhalter (formalization in clinical context)	FDA regulatory framework / ICH guidelines
種類	Confirmatory randomized controlled trial with Bayesian inference	Confirmatory randomised controlled trial
原典	Spiegelhalter, D. J., Abrams, K. R., & Myles, J. P. (2004). Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471499756	Friedman, L. M., Furberg, C. D., DeMets, D. L., Reboussin, D. M., & Granger, C. B. (2015). Fundamentals of Clinical Trials (5th ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-3319185385
別名	Bayesian confirmatory trial, Bayesian RCT Phase III, Bayesian pivotal trial, BayesCT	Phase 3 trial, confirmatory trial, pivotal trial, Phase III RCT
関連	5	6
概要	A Bayesian Phase III clinical trial is a large-scale, confirmatory randomized controlled trial that uses Bayesian statistical inference rather than conventional frequentist hypothesis testing to evaluate whether an experimental treatment meets pre-defined efficacy and safety thresholds. By combining prior evidence with accumulating trial data, it quantifies the probability that the treatment effect exceeds a clinically meaningful threshold, enabling more transparent decision-making under uncertainty.	A Phase III clinical trial is a large-scale, confirmatory randomised controlled trial designed to establish the efficacy and safety of an intervention in the target patient population before regulatory submission. It builds on the signal identified in Phase II, tests the intervention at its proposed dose under controlled conditions, and provides the primary evidence base for marketing authorisation or guideline adoption.