手法を比較

	ARMAモデル（自己回帰移動平均）	自己回帰和分移動平均モデル (ARIMA Model)
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1970	1970
提唱者	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
種類	Time series model	Time series forecasting model
原典	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
別名	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
関連	5	6
概要	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.