手法を比較

	ARCH-LM検定（ボラティリティ・クラスタリングのため）	マルコフ体制スイッチングモデル (MS-AR / MS-VAR)
分野	計量経済学	計量経済学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1982	1989
提唱者	Robert F. Engle	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)
種類	Lagrange multiplier diagnostic test for conditional heteroscedasticity	Regime-switching time series model
原典	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
別名	ARCH-LM Testi ve Volatilite Kümelenmesi Analizi, ARCH LM test, Engle's ARCH test, test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR
関連	6	5
概要	The ARCH-LM test is Robert Engle's (1982) Lagrange multiplier diagnostic for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the residuals of a fitted time-series model. It checks whether the error variance changes over time and clusters into calm and turbulent periods, and it is the standard pre-test run before fitting a GARCH-family volatility model.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.