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| Test di Accuratezza Predittiva Direzionale di Pesaran-Timmermann× | Test del Segno× | |
|---|---|---|
| Campo≠ | Econometria | Statistica |
| Famiglia | Hypothesis test | Hypothesis test |
| Anno di origine≠ | 1992 | 1946 |
| Ideatore≠ | M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann | W. J. Dixon & A. M. Mood |
| Tipo≠ | Nonparametric one-sided test | Nonparametric median test |
| Fonte seminale≠ | Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (1992). A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 461–465. DOI ↗ | Dixon, W. J. & Mood, A. M. (1946). The statistical sign test. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 41(236), 557–566. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | PT Test, Directional Accuracy Test, Nonparametric Predictive Performance Test, Pesaran-Timmermann Yön Testi | İşaret Testi (Sign Test), one-sample sign test, paired sign test |
| Correlati≠ | 3 | 4 |
| Sintesi≠ | Introduced by Pesaran and Timmermann (1992), the PT test is a nonparametric procedure that evaluates whether a forecasting model correctly predicts the direction (sign) of a target variable more often than would be expected by chance. It is widely used in financial econometrics and macroeconomic forecasting to assess the practical utility of a model beyond simple error metrics, particularly when the economic cost of getting the direction wrong is high. | The sign test is the simplest nonparametric hypothesis test for deciding whether the median of paired differences — or of a single sample — differs significantly from a hypothesised value. Formalised by W. J. Dixon and A. M. Mood in 1946, it imposes virtually no distributional assumptions and can be applied to any data where individual differences can be classified as positive or negative. |
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