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	Modellizzazione di nicchia	Analisi di Viabilità della Popolazione
Campo	Ecologia	Ecologia
Famiglia	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Anno di origine	1999	1981
Ideatore	Steven Phillips and David Stockwell	Mark Shaffer
Tipo	species distribution prediction	extinction risk assessment
Fonte seminale	Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., & Schapire, R. E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190(3-4), 231-259.	Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134.
Alias	species distribution modeling, habitat suitability modeling, ecological niche model, MaxEnt	PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP
Correlati	4	4
Sintesi	Niche modeling, also called species distribution modeling (SDM), predicts the geographic range and habitat suitability of species using presence-only or presence-background occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy, Phillips et al. 2006) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, Stockwell & Peters 1999) are two prominent algorithms. These methods identify the environmental conditions under which species are likely to occur, enabling prediction of distribution beyond sampled areas and assessment of habitat suitability across landscapes.	Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.