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	Modellazione Bayesiana di Equazioni Strutturali (BSEM)	Analisi di mediazione causale (effetti diretti e indiretti naturali)
Campo	Bayesiano	Inferenza causale
Famiglia	Bayesian methods	Regression model
Anno di origine	2012	2010
Ideatore	Bengt Muthén & Tihomir Asparouhov	Pearl (2001); general framework by Imai, Keele & Tingley (2010)
Tipo	Bayesian latent variable model	Counterfactual causal decomposition
Fonte seminale	Muthén, B. & Asparouhov, T. (2012). Bayesian SEM: A More Flexible Representation of Substantive Theory. Psychological Methods, 17(3), 313–335.	Pearl, J. (2001). Direct and Indirect Effects. In Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 411-420.
Alias	BSEM, Bayesian latent variable model, approximate zero constraints SEM, Bayesçi Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli	natural direct effect, natural indirect effect, NDE / NIE decomposition, counterfactual mediation
Correlati	6	5
Sintesi	Bayesian SEM, introduced by Muthén and Asparouhov in 2012, extends classical structural equation modeling by placing prior distributions on factor loadings, path coefficients, and covariances. Instead of returning a single maximum-likelihood estimate, it uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to produce a full posterior distribution for every parameter, enabling principled uncertainty quantification in models with latent variables.	Causal mediation analysis is a counterfactual framework that splits a treatment's total effect into a Natural Direct Effect (NDE) and a Natural Indirect Effect (NIE) that runs through a mediator. The modern general approach was formalised by Pearl (2001) and Imai, Keele and Tingley (2010), giving the decomposition a precise causal interpretation.