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	Automi Cellulari Bayesiani	Modello Markoviano Bayesiano
Campo	Simulazione	Simulazione
Famiglia	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Anno di origine	2000s	1990s–2000s
Ideatore	Multiple contributors (Bayesian calibration of CA emerged in spatial / land-use modeling literature, 2000s–2010s)	Briggs, A.; Sculpher, M.; and broader Bayesian statistics community
Tipo	Simulation — probabilistic rule inference	Probabilistic state-transition simulation
Fonte seminale	Hosseinali, F., Alesheikh, A. A., Nourian, F. (2013). Agent-based modeling of urban land-use development, case study: Simulating future scenarios of Qazvin city. Cities, 31, 105-113.	Briggs, A., Sculpher, M., Claxton, K. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press, Oxford. ISBN: 9780198526629
Alias	BCA, Bayesian CA, Probabilistic Cellular Automata (Bayesian), Bayes-calibrated CA	Bayesian Markov Chain Model, Bayesian State-Transition Model, BMM, Bayesian Cohort Simulation
Correlati	6	4
Sintesi	Bayesian Cellular Automata (BCA) couples the local-rule spatial dynamics of classical cellular automata with Bayesian inference to learn or calibrate transition probabilities from observed data. Rather than fixing rules by hand, the analyst encodes prior knowledge about how cells change state and updates those beliefs with empirical evidence, producing a posterior distribution over rule parameters that drives principled uncertainty-aware simulation.	A Bayesian Markov model is a state-transition simulation method that combines Markov chain cohort modeling with Bayesian statistical inference. By placing prior distributions on transition probabilities and updating them with observed data, the approach propagates full parameter uncertainty through the simulation, yielding posterior distributions over outcomes such as costs, life-years, or quality-adjusted life-years rather than single-point estimates.