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	Test del Fattore di Bayes	Catena di Markov Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Campo	Bayesiano	Bayesiano
Famiglia	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
Anno di origine	1961	—
Ideatore	Harold Jeffreys	—
Tipo	Bayesian hypothesis comparison	Posterior sampling algorithm
Fonte seminale	Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability (3rd ed.). Clarendon Press / Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0198503682	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
Alias	bayes factor, BF10, Bayesian hypothesis test, Bayes Faktörü — Hipotez Testi	markov chain monte carlo, MCMC sampling, MCMC (Markov Zinciri Monte Carlo)
Correlati	3	3
Sintesi	The Bayes factor test, formalised by Harold Jeffreys in 1961, is a Bayesian method for comparing two competing hypotheses. Rather than returning a binary reject/retain verdict, it produces a continuous ratio BF₁₀ that quantifies how much more (or less) probable the data are under the alternative hypothesis H₁ than under the null hypothesis H₀.	Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a family of computational algorithms for sampling from complex probability distributions, most commonly the posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian inference. Rather than computing posteriors analytically — which is rarely possible for realistic models — MCMC constructs a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target posterior and draws dependent samples from it, enabling full probabilistic inference for virtually any model.