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| Modello ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)× | DeepAR× | PatchTST× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campo≠ | Econometria | Apprendimento profondo | Apprendimento profondo |
| Famiglia≠ | Regression model | Machine learning | Machine learning |
| Anno di origine≠ | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 |
| Ideatore≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | Salinas, D., Flunkert, V. & Gasthaus, J. (Amazon) | Nie, Y. et al. |
| Tipo≠ | Univariate time-series model | Autoregressive recurrent neural network (probabilistic forecasting) | Transformer for time series forecasting |
| Fonte seminale≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Salinas, D., Flunkert, V., Gasthaus, J. & Januschowski, T. (2020). DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 1181–1191. DOI ↗ | Nie, Y., Nguyen, N. H., Sinthong, P. & Kalagnanam, J. (2023). A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers. ICLR. link ↗ |
| Alias | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | DeepAR — Olasılıksal RNN Tahmini, probabilistic autoregressive RNN forecasting, Amazon DeepAR | PatchTST — Yama Tabanlı Zaman Serisi Transformer, patch-based time series transformer, channel-independent transformer |
| Correlati≠ | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Sintesi≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | DeepAR is Amazon's industrial forecasting model, introduced by Salinas, Flunkert and Gasthaus (2017; published 2020), that uses an autoregressive recurrent neural network to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution at each step, producing a confidence interval rather than a single point forecast. It can model many related time series jointly within one model. | PatchTST is a patch-based Transformer architecture for time series forecasting, introduced by Nie and colleagues in 2023, that cuts each series into overlapping patches treated as tokens and processes channels independently. It balances computational efficiency with strong accuracy on long-horizon forecasting. |
| ScholarGateInsieme di dati ↗ |
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