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Historical Process Tracing

Historical process tracing is a within-case method for establishing causation by following a hypothesized mechanism step by step through the sequence of events that links a cause to an outcome. Systematized for the social sciences by Alexander George and Andrew Bennett and refined by James Mahoney, the approach treats history not as a source of correlations across cases but as a chain of intervening steps whose presence or absence can confirm or refute rival explanations. Instead of asking whether a cause covaries with an outcome across many units, process tracing asks whether the connecting mechanism actually operated in the case at hand, examining diagnostic pieces of evidence, causal-process observations, against the predictions of competing hypotheses. Drawing on the logic of Bayesian updating and on tests such as the hoop test and the smoking-gun test, it offers a disciplined way to leverage rich qualitative detail for strong causal inference in single cases and small comparisons typical of historical institutionalism.

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Sumber

  1. George, A. L., & Bennett, A. (2005). Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. MIT Press. ISBN: 9780262572224
  2. Mahoney, J., & Rueschemeyer, D. (Eds.). (2003). Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521016452

Cara menyitasi halaman ini

ScholarGate. (2026, June 23). Comparative Historical Process Tracing. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/id/historical-institutionalism/comparative-historical-process-tracing

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ScholarGateHistorical Process Tracing (Comparative Historical Process Tracing). Diakses 2026-06-24 dari https://scholargate.app/id/historical-institutionalism/comparative-historical-process-tracing · Set data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026