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Simulasi Pilihan Diskrit×Mikrosimulasi×Model Logit Campuran×Simulasi Monte Carlo×
BidangSimulasiSimulasiEkonometrikaPengambilan Keputusan
KeluargaProcess / pipelineProcess / pipelineRegression modelMCDM
Tahun asal1974 (McFadden's Nobel-cited logit); simulation extensions throughout 1990s–2000s195720001949
PencetusDaniel McFadden (random utility theory); Kenneth Train (simulation methods)Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projectsDaniel McFadden & Kenneth TrainMetropolis, N., Ulam, S.
TipeDiscrete choice modelling with Monte Carlo simulationPolicy simulation / computational social scienceRandom-parameters discrete choice modelRobustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
Sumber perintisTrain, K.E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗Train, K. E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0-521-74738-7Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗
Aliasstated preference simulation, SP simulation, revealed preference modelling, Ayrık Seçim Simülasyonu (Stated Preference / SP Simulation)Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulationRandom Parameters Logit, Mixed Multinomial Logit, Error Components Logit, Karma Logit Modeli
Terkait5530
RingkasanDiscrete choice simulation is a behavioural modelling method — grounded in random utility theory formalised by Daniel McFadden in the 1970s and extended to simulation-based estimation by Kenneth Train — that estimates how individuals choose among mutually exclusive alternatives and then uses those estimated preference parameters to forecast how choice shares would shift under hypothetical policy or market scenarios. It is the dominant quantitative tool in transport demand analysis, health economics, environmental valuation, and marketing research.Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.The Mixed Logit model, introduced formally by McFadden and Train (2000) and elaborated in Train (2009), is a flexible discrete choice framework that allows preference parameters to vary randomly across decision-makers. By integrating standard logit probabilities over a mixing distribution of coefficients, it overcomes the restrictive independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property and accommodates unobserved taste heterogeneity, panel data correlation, and complex substitution patterns across alternatives.MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.
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ScholarGateBandingkan metode: Discrete Choice Simulation · Microsimulation · Mixed Logit · MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION. Diakses 2026-06-18 dari https://scholargate.app/id/compare