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| Sztochasztikus Rendszermodellezés× | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület≠ | Szimuláció | Döntéshozatal |
| Módszercsalád≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 1980s–2000s | 1949 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Típus≠ | Continuous stochastic simulation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Alapmű≠ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics | — |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 5 | 0 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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