Módszerek összehasonlítása

	Stochastic Microsimulation	Sztochasztikus Rendszermodellezés
Tudományterület	Szimuláció	Szimuláció
Módszercsalád	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Keletkezés éve	1957	1980s–2000s
Megalkotó	Guy H. Orcutt	Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers
Típus	Stochastic individual-level simulation	Continuous stochastic simulation
Alapmű	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
Alternatív nevek	Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM	SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics
Kapcsolódó	6	5
Összefoglaló	Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.	Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.