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| Bayes-érzékenységvizsgálat az okszaliság szempontjából× | Tárgyhajlamossági pontszám illesztés× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület≠ | Oksági következtetés | Kutatási statisztika |
| Módszercsalád≠ | Regression model | Process / pipeline |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 2000s–2010s | 1983 |
| Megalkotó≠ | McCandless, Gustafson & Austin (2007); Gustafson (2015) | Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin |
| Típus≠ | Bayesian causal sensitivity analysis | Method |
| Alapmű≠ | McCandless, L. C., Gustafson, P., & Austin, P. C. (2007). Bayesian propensity score analysis for observational data. Statistics in Medicine, 26(8), 1704-1718. DOI ↗ | Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55. DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | Bayesian sensitivity analysis, Bayesian bias analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis for confounding, Bayesian unmeasured confounding analysis | PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 6 | 3 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Bayesian sensitivity analysis for causality quantifies how much an unmeasured confounder would need to influence both treatment assignment and outcome to overturn a causal conclusion. Rather than testing a single worst-case scenario, it places prior distributions over the strength of hidden confounding, propagates uncertainty through a full Bayesian model, and reports a posterior distribution for the causal effect that honestly reflects what is and is not identified from observed data. | Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias. |
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