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| Bayesova Monte Carlo simulacija× | Simulacija Monte Carlo× | |
|---|---|---|
| Područje≠ | Simulacija | Donošenje odluka |
| Obitelj≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Godina nastanka≠ | 1987–1990s | 1949 |
| Tvorac≠ | O'Hagan, A. and colleagues | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Vrsta≠ | Simulation / uncertainty quantification | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Temeljni izvor≠ | O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E., & Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. Wiley. ISBN: 9780470029992 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Drugi nazivi≠ | Bayesian MC, BMC simulation, Bayesian stochastic simulation, Bayesian uncertainty propagation | — |
| Srodne≠ | 4 | 0 |
| Sažetak≠ | Bayesian Monte Carlo Simulation integrates Bayesian statistical inference with Monte Carlo sampling to propagate uncertainty through complex models. Instead of drawing samples from arbitrary distributions, it conditions sampling on observed data and expert prior knowledge via Bayes' theorem, yielding posterior-based uncertainty estimates that are both statistically coherent and interpretable in probabilistic terms. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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