Probabilistic Voting Model
The probabilistic voting model is a formal theory of electoral competition in which each voter's choice between two parties is treated as stochastic rather than deterministic, governed by a smooth probability that depends on the policy utilities the parties offer plus idiosyncratic and partisan preference shocks. Developed by Assar Lindbeck and Jörgen Weibull in 1987 and given its general treatment by Peter Coughlin in 1992, the model replaces the knife-edge switching of the median voter framework with continuous vote-share functions. Two office-seeking parties maximize expected vote share, and the resulting equilibrium maximizes a density-weighted social welfare function in which the most responsive — the swing — voters carry the greatest weight. Crucially, the model delivers a determinate, interior equilibrium even in multidimensional policy spaces where a Condorcet winner generically fails to exist.
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स्रोत
- Lindbeck, A., & Weibull, J. W. (1987). Balanced-budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition. Public Choice, 52(3), 273-297. DOI: 10.1007/BF00116710 ↗
- Coughlin, P. J. (1992). Probabilistic Voting Theory. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521360524
इस पृष्ठ का उद्धरण कैसे दें
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Probabilistic Voting Model of Electoral Competition. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/hi/political-economy/probabilistic-voting-model
कौन-सी पद्धति?
इस पद्धति को उसकी निकटतम सजातीय पद्धतियों के साथ रखकर उन्हें साथ-साथ पढ़ें — पुस्तकालय पुस्तकें मेज़ पर रख देता है; चुनाव आपका है।
- Median Voter ModelPolitical Economy↔ तुलना करें
- Meltzer-Richard ModelPolitical Economy↔ तुलना करें
- Public Choice AnalysisPolitical Economy↔ तुलना करें
- Spatial Voting ModelPolitical Science↔ तुलना करें