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फूरियर ए.आर.सी.एच. मॉडल (Fourier ARCH Model)×गार्छ मॉडल (अस्थिरता पूर्वानुमान)×
क्षेत्रअर्थमितिअर्थमिति
परिवारRegression modelRegression model
उद्भव वर्ष2010s1986
प्रवर्तकExtends Engle (1982) ARCH framework with Fourier terms following Enders & Lee (2012)Tim Bollerslev
प्रकारVolatility model with smooth structural changeConditional volatility model
मौलिक स्रोतEngle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. DOI ↗Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗
उपनामFourier-ARCH, F-ARCH, ARCH with Fourier terms, Fourier smooth transition ARCHGARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
संबंधित65
सारांशThe Fourier ARCH model extends the classical ARCH framework by incorporating trigonometric (Fourier) terms into the conditional variance equation. This allows the model to capture smooth, gradual shifts in volatility dynamics over time without assuming abrupt structural breaks, making it well-suited for long financial or macroeconomic time series subject to slowly evolving regime changes.The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.
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