השוואת שיטות
סקרו את השיטות שבחרתם זו לצד זו; שורות שבהן יש הבדל מודגשות.
| קריטריון קלי× | תמחור נטול סיכון× | |
|---|---|---|
| תחום | מימון כמותי | מימון כמותי |
| משפחה | Regression model | Regression model |
| שנת המקור≠ | 1956 | 1979 |
| הוגה השיטה≠ | John L. Kelly Jr. | John Harrison and David Kreps |
| סוג≠ | Bet Sizing Framework | Fundamental Principle |
| מקור מכונן≠ | Kelly, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926. DOI ↗ | Harrison, J. M., & Kreps, D. M. (1979). Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 20(3), 381-408. DOI ↗ |
| כינויים | Kelly Formula, Optimal Bet Sizing | Risk-Neutral Measure, Q-Measure |
| קשורות≠ | 1 | 4 |
| תקציר≠ | The Kelly Criterion (1956) is a formula for optimal bet sizing that maximizes the long-run logarithmic growth of wealth. It specifies the optimal fraction of capital to risk on each trade based on win probability and payoff ratio. The criterion has become foundational in quantitative trading, portfolio management, and behavioral economics. | Risk-neutral valuation (1979) is the fundamental principle that derivative prices equal the expected payoff discounted at the risk-free rate, computed under a risk-neutral probability measure (Q-measure). This principle, formalized by Harrison and Kreps, eliminates the need to estimate risk premia and is the foundation of modern derivatives pricing. |
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