השוואת שיטות

	אוטו-רגרסיה וקטורית בייסיאנית (BVAR)	מודל מיתוג-משטרים של מרקוב (MS-AR / MS-VAR)
תחום	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה
משפחה	Regression model	Regression model
שנת המקור	1986	1989
הוגה השיטה	Litterman (1986); Bańbura, Giannone & Reichlin (2010)	Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999)
סוג	Bayesian multivariate time-series model	Regime-switching time series model
מקור מכונן	Litterman, R. B. (1986). Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions—Five Years of Experience. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4(1), 25-38.	Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
כינויים	BVAR, Bayesian vector autoregression, Minnesota prior VAR, Bayesian VAR (BVAR)	regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR
קשורות	5	5
תקציר	Bayesian VAR adds Minnesota or other prior distributions to a vector autoregressive model to control over-parameterisation. Introduced by Litterman (1986) and extended to high dimensions by Bańbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010), it outperforms classical VAR on short series and high-dimensional macroeconomic forecasts.	The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.