השוואת שיטות

	מודל ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	פירוק STL: פירוק עונתי-מגמה באמצעות Loess
תחום	אקונומטריקה	אקונומטריקה
משפחה	Regression model	Process / pipeline
שנת המקור	2015	1990
הוגה השיטה	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae & Terpenning
סוג	Univariate time-series model	nonparametric iterative smoother
מקור מכונן	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Cleveland, R. B., Cleveland, W. S., McRae, J. E., & Terpenning, I. (1990). STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. Journal of Official Statistics, 6(1), 3–73.
כינויים	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess, STL filtering, Loess-based seasonal decomposition, Mevsimsel-Trend Ayrıştırma (STL)
קשורות	5	3
תקציר	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	STL Decomposition, introduced by Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae, and Terpenning (1990), is a nonparametric procedure that separates a time series into three additive components — trend, seasonal, and remainder — using iterative locally weighted regression (loess). Widely used in economics, meteorology, and data science, it handles time series of any periodicity and is robust to the presence of outliers, making it a highly flexible alternative to classical decomposition methods.