השוואת שיטות

	מודל ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Conditional Value-at-Risk (Expected Shortfall)
תחום	אקונומטריקה	מימון
משפחה	Regression model	Regression model
שנת המקור	2015	2000
הוגה השיטה	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Rockafellar & Uryasev (2000); Acerbi & Tasche (2002)
סוג	Univariate time-series model	Coherent tail-risk measure
מקור מכונן	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Rockafellar, R. T. & Uryasev, S. (2000). Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Journal of Risk, 2(3), 21-41.
כינויים	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	CVaR, expected shortfall, average value-at-risk, tail VaR
קשורות	5	5
תקציר	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), also called Expected Shortfall, is a coherent tail-risk measure that quantifies the conditional expectation of losses beyond the Value-at-Risk threshold. It was introduced for optimization by Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000) and shown to be coherent by Acerbi and Tasche (2002), and it has replaced VaR as the regulatory standard under Basel III/IV.