Comparer des méthodes
Examinez les méthodes sélectionnées côte à côte ; les lignes qui diffèrent sont mises en évidence.
| Analyse de scénarios robuste× | Analyse stochastique de scénarios× | |
|---|---|---|
| Domaine | Simulation | Simulation |
| Famille | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Année d'origine≠ | 1950 (foundations); 2003 (modern RDM formulation) | 1955–1980s |
| Auteur d'origine≠ | Wald, A. (minimax foundation); Lempert et al. (RDM framework) | Dantzig, G. B.; Birge, J. R.; and others in stochastic programming tradition |
| Type≠ | Scenario-based robustness evaluation | Probabilistic scenario enumeration and evaluation |
| Source fondatrice≠ | Wald, A. (1950). Statistical Decision Functions. Wiley, New York. link ↗ | Birge, J. R., Louveaux, F. (2011). Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 9781461402374 |
| Alias | RSA, Robust Scenario Planning, Worst-Case Scenario Analysis, Minimax Regret Scenario Analysis | Probabilistic Scenario Analysis, SSA, Stochastic What-If Analysis, Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis |
| Apparentées≠ | 5 | 4 |
| Résumé≠ | Robust Scenario Analysis evaluates a set of candidate strategies across a structured collection of plausible future scenarios and selects the strategy that performs acceptably well — or best in the worst case — regardless of which scenario materializes. It merges scenario planning with robustness criteria such as maximin, minimax regret, or satisficing to support decisions under deep, irreducible uncertainty. | Stochastic Scenario Analysis evaluates a system or decision across multiple explicitly defined scenarios, each assigned a probability of occurrence. Unlike deterministic scenario analysis, it propagates uncertainty through probability distributions and computes expected outcomes, variance, and risk metrics across the scenario space, giving decision-makers a structured view of what could happen and how likely each outcome is. |
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