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| Analyse probabiliste du risque sismique (PSHA)× | Simulation de Monte-Carlo× | |
|---|---|---|
| Domaine≠ | Génie civil | Prise de décision |
| Famille≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Année d'origine≠ | 1968 | 1949 |
| Auteur d'origine≠ | C. Allin Cornell | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Type≠ | Quantitative probabilistic framework | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Source fondatrice≠ | Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606. link ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | PSHA, seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment, Cornell-McGuire method | — |
| Apparentées≠ | 1 | 0 |
| Résumé≠ | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a quantitative engineering framework used in civil and geotechnical engineering to estimate the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed a specified intensity level at a site within a given time window. By combining earthquake source geometry, recurrence statistics, and ground-motion attenuation models, PSHA produces hazard curves and maps that inform seismic design codes, infrastructure planning, and risk management decisions. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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