Comparer des méthodes

	Modèle ARIMA non linéaire	Modèle GARCH (Prévision de la volatilité)
Domaine	Économétrie	Économétrie
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	1978-1994	1986
Auteur d'origine	Howell Tong (SETAR/TAR framework); Timo Terasvirta (STAR extensions)	Tim Bollerslev
Type	Nonlinear time series model	Conditional volatility model
Source fondatrice	Tong, H. (1990). Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198522249	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
Alias	nonlinear ARIMA, NARIMA, nonlinear time series model, nonlinear Box-Jenkins model	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Apparentées	3	5
Résumé	The Nonlinear ARIMA model extends the classical Box-Jenkins ARIMA framework by allowing the conditional mean of a time series to depend on past values and past errors through a nonlinear function. It encompasses families such as Threshold AR (TAR/SETAR), Smooth Transition AR (STAR/LSTAR/ESTAR), and Markov-switching models, capturing asymmetric dynamics, regime changes, and business-cycle asymmetries that linear ARIMA cannot represent.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.