Comparer des méthodes

	Analyse Bayésienne d'Arbre d'Événements	Analyse Bayésienne d'Arbre de Défaillance
Domaine	Plans d'expériences	Plans d'expériences
Famille	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Année d'origine	ETA: 1960s–1970s; Bayesian extension: 1990s–2000s	2001 (BFTA mapping); Bayesian networks: 1988
Auteur d'origine	H.E. Watson (Bell Labs, fault tree); ETA formalized via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Bayesian extension developed in reliability and risk engineering communities	Andrea Bobbio, Luca Portinale et al. (mapping FTA to Bayesian networks); Judea Pearl (Bayesian networks)
Type	Probabilistic risk and reliability analysis technique	Probabilistic reliability / safety analysis
Source fondatrice	Bearfield, G., & Marsh, W. (2005). Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment. In G. Windeknecht et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 13th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium. Springer.	Bobbio, A., Portinale, L., Minichino, M., & Ciancamerla, E. (2001). Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 71(3), 249–260.
Alias	Bayesian ETA, B-ETA, Probabilistic Event Tree Analysis, Bayesian Inductive Risk Model	BFTA, Bayesian FTA, Bayesian network fault tree, probabilistic fault tree analysis
Apparentées	5	5
Résumé	Bayesian Event Tree Analysis (B-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment method that extends classical event tree analysis by incorporating Bayesian inference to assign and update branch probabilities. Starting from an initiating event, it maps sequences of successes and failures through safety barriers, using prior distributions and observed evidence to produce posterior outcome probabilities. Widely used in nuclear safety, process industries, and system reliability engineering.	Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis (BFTA) extends classical fault tree analysis by converting the fault tree structure into an equivalent Bayesian network, enabling probabilistic inference in both forward (prediction) and backward (diagnosis) directions. This integration allows analysts to update failure probability estimates with observed evidence, quantify uncertainty explicitly, and identify the most probable root causes of a top-level system failure.