Vertaile menetelmiä

	Merkityksenotto – Varianssin pienentäminen harvinaisille tapahtumille	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION
Tieteenala	Simulointi	Päätöksenteko
Menetelmäperhe	Process / pipeline	MCDM
Syntyvuosi	1951	1949
Kehittäjä	Herman Kahn & Theodore Harris (RAND Corporation, 1951)	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
Tyyppi	Monte Carlo variance-reduction technique	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
Alkuperäislähde	Rubinstein, R.Y. & Kroese, D.P. (2016). Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (3rd ed.). Wiley.	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
Rinnakkaisnimet	IS, weighted Monte Carlo, Önem Örneklemesi	—
Liittyvät	5	0
Tiivistelmä	Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo variance-reduction technique that shifts the sampling distribution toward the region of interest — typically a rare or extreme event — so that informative samples are drawn far more often than under the original distribution. Developed at the RAND Corporation by Herman Kahn and Theodore Harris around 1951, it makes tail-probability estimation (such as Value-at-Risk or system-failure probability) tractable where standard Monte Carlo would require an astronomically large number of runs.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.