Vertaile menetelmiä

	ETS: Virhe-, trendi- ja kausitasoitus	Holt-Wintersin kolminkertainen eksponentiaalinen tasoitus	OLS-regressio (Ordinary Least Squares)
Tieteenala	Ekonometria	Ekonometria	Ekonometria
Menetelmäperhe	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Syntyvuosi	2008	1960	2019
Kehittäjä	Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)	Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Tyyppi	Exponential smoothing state space model	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	Linear regression
Alkuperäislähde	Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer.	Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Rinnakkaisnimet	exponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme	triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Liittyvät	5	4	5
Tiivistelmä	ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.	Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).