مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	کمی‌سازی عدم قطعیت	شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو
حوزه	شبیه‌سازی	تصمیم‌گیری
خانواده	Process / pipeline	MCDM
سال پیدایش	Seminal modern form: 2002	1949
پدیدآور	Norbert Wiener (polynomial chaos, 1938); extended to Wiener–Askey scheme by Xiu & Karniadakis (2002)	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
نوع	Computational uncertainty analysis framework	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
منبع بنیادین	Xiu, D. & Karniadakis, G.E. (2002). The Wiener-Askey Polynomial Chaos for Stochastic Differential Equations. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(2), 619–644.	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
نام‌های دیگر	UQ, polynomial chaos expansion, PCE, Kriging surrogate	—
مرتبط	9	0
خلاصه	Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a computational framework for systematically measuring how uncertainty in the inputs of a model propagates into uncertainty in its outputs. Building on Wiener's polynomial chaos theory (1938) and formalised for general stochastic problems by Xiu and Karniadakis (2002), UQ uses two primary strategies: Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), which represents the model output as a series of orthogonal polynomials matched to the input distributions, and Kriging (Gaussian process) surrogates, which replace an expensive simulation with a fast statistical approximation fitted to a small set of carefully chosen runs.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.