مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	معیارهای ریسک دنباله (کسری مورد انتظار، طیفی، انتظار)	مدل GARCH (پیش‌بینی نوسانات)
حوزه	مالی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	1999	1986
پدیدآور	Artzner, Delbaen, Eber & Heath (coherent risk axioms); Acerbi & Tasche (Expected Shortfall)	Tim Bollerslev
نوع	Coherent tail risk measure	Conditional volatility model
منبع بنیادین	Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.-M. & Heath, D. (1999). Coherent Measures of Risk. Mathematical Finance, 9(3), 203–228.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
نام‌های دیگر	expected shortfall, conditional value at risk, CVaR, spectral risk measure	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
مرتبط	5	5
خلاصه	Tail risk measures quantify the loss distribution beyond Value-at-Risk (VaR). Expected Shortfall — the expected loss given that VaR is exceeded — is the leading coherent risk measure, formalised by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber and Heath (1999) and shown to be coherent by Acerbi and Tasche (2002). Spectral and expectile-based measures generalise it.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.