مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مدل GARCH (پیش‌بینی نوسانات)	مدل SARIMA
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	1986	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)
پدیدآور	Tim Bollerslev	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel
نوع	Conditional volatility model	Seasonal time series model
منبع بنیادین	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
نام‌های دیگر	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component
مرتبط	5	5
خلاصه	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.