مقایسهٔ روشها
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| مدل نمایی GARCH (EGARCH)× | نظریه مقادیر حدی (EVT)× | |
|---|---|---|
| حوزه≠ | اقتصادسنجی | مالی |
| خانواده | Regression model | Regression model |
| سال پیدایش≠ | 1991 | 2001 |
| پدیدآور≠ | Nelson | Coles (textbook treatment); McNeil, Frey & Embrechts |
| نوع≠ | Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant) | Tail / extreme-event model |
| منبع بنیادین≠ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370. DOI ↗ | Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer. ISBN: 978-1852334598 |
| نامهای دیگر≠ | exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH | EVT, generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto distribution, peaks over threshold |
| مرتبط≠ | 4 | 5 |
| خلاصه≠ | EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance. | Extreme Value Theory is a statistical framework for modelling the rare events that live in the tail of a probability distribution. As developed in Coles (2001) and applied to risk by McNeil, Frey & Embrechts (2005), it offers two standard routes: the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for block maxima and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), used in the peaks-over-threshold approach, for exceedances above a high threshold. |
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