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مدل عامل پویا×رگرسیون MIDAS: پیش‌بینی در فرکانس‌های داده‌ای ترکیبی×مدل خودرگرسیون برداری (VAR)×
حوزهاقتصادسنجیاقتصادسنجیاقتصادسنجی
خانوادهRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
سال پیدایش200220072005
پدیدآورJames Stock & Mark WatsonEric Ghysels, Arthur Sinko & Rossen ValkanovLütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
نوعLatent-factor time-series modelParametric mixed-frequency forecasting modelMultivariate time-series model
منبع بنیادینStock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(2), 147–162. DOI ↗Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2007). MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26(1), 53–90. DOI ↗Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرDiffusion Index Model, Large-Scale Factor Model, Approximate Factor Model, Dinamik Faktör ModeliMixed Frequency Regression, Mixed Data Sampling Model, High-Frequency Forecasting Regression, MIDAS Regresyonuvector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
مرتبط234
خلاصهA Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) extracts a small number of latent common factors from a large panel of economic time series and uses those factors to forecast or nowcast a target variable. Formalized for macroeconomic forecasting by James Stock and Mark Watson in their 2002 Journal of Business & Economic Statistics paper, DFMs handle hundreds of indicators simultaneously while avoiding the curse of dimensionality that plagues traditional multivariate models.MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) Regression is an econometric framework that directly incorporates high-frequency predictors into models for lower-frequency outcome variables without requiring temporal aggregation of the regressors. Introduced by Eric Ghysels, Arthur Sinko, and Rossen Valkanov in 2007, MIDAS uses parsimoniously parameterized lag polynomials — such as the Beta or Exponential Almon weighting schemes — to summarize the information content of many high-frequency lags while avoiding parameter proliferation.Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Dynamic Factor Model · MIDAS Regression · VAR Model. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-15 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare