مقایسهٔ روشها
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| آزمون ARCH-LM برای خوشهبندی نوسانات× | مدل رژیم-سوئیچینگ مارکوف (MS-AR / MS-VAR)× | |
|---|---|---|
| حوزه | اقتصادسنجی | اقتصادسنجی |
| خانواده | Regression model | Regression model |
| سال پیدایش≠ | 1982 | 1989 |
| پدیدآور≠ | Robert F. Engle | Hamilton (1989); Kim & Nelson (1999) |
| نوع≠ | Lagrange multiplier diagnostic test for conditional heteroscedasticity | Regime-switching time series model |
| منبع بنیادین≠ | Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987-1007. DOI ↗ | Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. DOI ↗ |
| نامهای دیگر≠ | ARCH-LM Testi ve Volatilite Kümelenmesi Analizi, ARCH LM test, Engle's ARCH test, test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity | regime-switching model, Markov-switching autoregression, MS-AR, MS-VAR |
| مرتبط≠ | 6 | 5 |
| خلاصه≠ | The ARCH-LM test is Robert Engle's (1982) Lagrange multiplier diagnostic for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the residuals of a fitted time-series model. It checks whether the error variance changes over time and clusters into calm and turbulent periods, and it is the standard pre-test run before fitting a GARCH-family volatility model. | The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions. |
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