Comparar métodos

	Modelo GARCH (Predicción de Volatilidad)	Modelo ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Regresión por Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO)
Campo	Econometría	Econometría	Econometría
Familia	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Año de origen	1986	2015	2019
Autor original	Tim Bollerslev	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Tipo	Conditional volatility model	Univariate time-series model	Linear regression
Fuente seminal	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Alias	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Relacionados	5	5	5
Resumen	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).