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Valor en Riesgo Condicional (Exceso de Pérdidas Esperadas)×Modelo ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)×
CampoFinanzasEconometría
FamiliaRegression modelRegression model
Año de origen20002015
Autor originalRockafellar & Uryasev (2000); Acerbi & Tasche (2002)Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)
TipoCoherent tail-risk measureUnivariate time-series model
Fuente seminalRockafellar, R. T. & Uryasev, S. (2000). Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Journal of Risk, 2(3), 21-41. DOI ↗Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
AliasCVaR, expected shortfall, average value-at-risk, tail VaRBox-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli
Relacionados55
ResumenConditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), also called Expected Shortfall, is a coherent tail-risk measure that quantifies the conditional expectation of losses beyond the Value-at-Risk threshold. It was introduced for optimization by Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000) and shown to be coherent by Acerbi and Tasche (2002), and it has replaced VaR as the regulatory standard under Basel III/IV.ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).
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ScholarGateComparar métodos: Conditional Value-at-Risk · ARIMA. Recuperado el 2026-06-17 de https://scholargate.app/es/compare