Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
Agent-Based Scenario Analysis
Agent-based scenario analysis embeds agent-based simulation models inside a structured scenario planning framework. Researchers define two to four contrasting future scenarios, configure agent populations and environmental rules to reflect each scenario's assumptions, run the simulation under each condition, and compare emergent outcomes. This makes it possible to explore how decentralized individual behaviors aggregate into system-level consequences under radically different futures.
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Sources
- Axelrod, R. (1997). The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press. Princeton, NJ. ISBN: 9780691015675
- Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25–40. link ↗