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Bayesian Placebo Test/Evidence
Method evidence record

Bayesian Placebo Test

The Bayesian Placebo Test is a falsification strategy for causal inference that applies Bayesian inference to placebo scenarios — either fake treatments in the pre-intervention period, on unaffected units, or at fictitious cut-offs — to verify that observed treatment effects cannot plausibly arise by chance or from a misspecified model. It integrates prior information and yields posterior distributions of placebo effects for direct probabilistic comparison.

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Source record

Citations copied verbatim from the method’s source record. No claim-level verification is inferred from them.

Bayesian Placebo Test for Causal Inference
Taxonomic method record · regression-model / causal-inference
  • Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274. · DOI 10.1214/14-AOAS788
  • Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505. · DOI 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746
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Related methods

Generated from the method graph and shown as machine-suggested relations — no evidence claim is inferred.

Taxonomic bucketBayesian Causal Impact Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Taxonomic bucketBayesian Difference-in-Differencesmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Taxonomic bucketBayesian Synthetic Control Methodmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Taxonomic bucketCausal Impact Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Taxonomic bucketSensitivity Analysis for Causalitymachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.

Evidence status

Sources recorded, not reviewed

Bibliographic sources are present. Claim-level evidence review has not been performed.

Sources

2 recorded citations, copied from the method source record.

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