Regression modelEpidemic modelling
SIR Compartmental Epidemic Model
The SIR model is a foundational mathematical framework for describing the spread of infectious diseases through a population. Introduced by William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick in 1927, it partitions a closed population of size N into three mutually exclusive compartments: Susceptible (S), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). A system of ordinary differential equations governs the flow of individuals between compartments, capturing epidemic dynamics with two key parameters — the transmission rate β and the recovery rate γ.
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Sources
- Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115(772), 700–721. DOI: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 ↗