Bayesian Case-Crossover Design — Self-Matched Epidemiological Study with Bayesian Inference

The Bayesian case-crossover design is a self-matched epidemiological method that estimates the transient effect of a time-varying exposure on the risk of an acute event. Each case serves as their own control, eliminating confounding by time-stable individual characteristics. Bayesian inference replaces or supplements the classical conditional logistic regression, enabling the incorporation of prior knowledge, more stable estimation in sparse data, and full uncertainty quantification via posterior distributions.