Regression model

Markov Regime-Switching Model (MS-AR / MS-VAR)

The Markov regime-switching model lets the parameters of a time series change probabilistically across hidden regimes governed by a Markov chain. Introduced by Hamilton (1989) and developed further by Kim and Nelson (1999), it automatically detects business-cycle phases such as expansions and contractions.

Apply with EconMindSoonVideoSoon

Read the full method

Members only

Sign in with a free account to read this section.

Sign in

Sources

  1. Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384. DOI: 10.2307/1912559
  2. Kim, C. J. & Nelson, C. R. (1999). State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications. MIT Press. ISBN: 978-0262112383

Related methods

Referenced by

ScholarGateMarkov-Switching Model (Markov Regime-Switching Model (MS-AR / MS-VAR)). Retrieved 2026-06-04 from https://scholargate.app/en/econometrics/markov-switching