Bayesian methodsBayesian / computational
Time Series Bayesian Hierarchical Model
A time series Bayesian hierarchical model combines the hierarchical (multilevel) Bayesian framework with a dynamic state-space structure to analyse temporal data collected on multiple units or groups. Priors encode beliefs about both within-unit dynamics and cross-unit variation, and the posterior is obtained via MCMC or sequential Monte Carlo, yielding full probabilistic forecasts with calibrated uncertainty.
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Sources
- West, M. & Harrison, J. (1997). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387947259
- Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955