Regression modelEconometrics / time series

Bayesian SARIMA Model

The Bayesian SARIMA model combines the classical Box-Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA framework with Bayesian inference to handle seasonal time-series data. Rather than producing a single point estimate, it yields a full posterior distribution over model parameters, propagating parameter uncertainty directly into forecasts and enabling principled incorporation of prior knowledge.

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Sources

  1. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
  2. Geweke, J., & Whiteman, C. (2006). Bayesian forecasting. In G. Elliott, C. W. J. Granger, & A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting (Vol. 1, pp. 3–80). Elsevier. link

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Referenced by

ScholarGateBayesian SARIMA Model (Bayesian Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model). Retrieved 2026-06-04 from https://scholargate.app/en/econometrics/bayesian-sarima-model