Methoden vergleichen

	Zeitvariierende Parameter Granger-Kausalität	Vektorautoregression (VAR)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1969 (Granger); TVP extension ~2005	1980
Urheber	C.W.J. Granger (causality concept); TVP extension developed by Primiceri (2005) and subsequent literature	Christopher A. Sims
Typ	Causality test / time-varying model	Multivariate time-series model
Wegweisende Quelle	Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.
Aliasnamen	TVP Granger causality, rolling-window Granger causality, time-varying Granger test, dynamic Granger causality	VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression
Verwandt	4	5
Zusammenfassung	Time-varying parameter Granger causality extends the classical Granger causality framework by allowing the predictive relationships between time series to evolve across time. Instead of assuming fixed causal effects, the model estimates causal coefficients that can shift, capturing structural breaks, regime changes, or gradual evolution in economic or financial relationships.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.