Methoden vergleichen

	Synthetische Kontrollmethode (SCM)	Propensity Score Matching
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Forschungsstatistik
Familie	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2003–2010	1983
Urheber	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
Typ	Quasi-experimental causal inference	Method
Wegweisende Quelle	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
Aliasnamen	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
Verwandt	4	3
Zusammenfassung	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.