Methoden vergleichen

	Paneldaten-Placebo-Test	Synthetische Kontrollmethode (SCM)
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Kausale Inferenz
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2004-2010	2003–2010
Urheber	Bertrand, Duflo & Mullainathan; Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
Typ	Falsification / validation test	Quasi-experimental causal inference
Wegweisende Quelle	Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249-275.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
Aliasnamen	placebo regression test, falsification test, pseudo-treatment test, in-time placebo	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
Verwandt	4	4
Zusammenfassung	A panel data placebo test is a falsification procedure used to assess the credibility of causal estimates in quasi-experimental panel designs. By applying the same estimation strategy to a period, group, or outcome where no true effect should exist, researchers verify that the observed treatment effect is not merely an artifact of model specification, coincidental trends, or data patterns unrelated to the intervention.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.