Methoden vergleichen

	Lokale Projektionen	Global VAR	Schwellen-Panel-VAR
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2005	2004	1996
Urheber	Oscar Jorda	Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner	Bruce Hansen and colleagues
Typ	Multi-horizon regression	International system model	Nonlinear panel model
Wegweisende Quelle	Jorda, O. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American Economic Review, 95(1), 161-182.	Pesaran, M. H., Schuermann, T., & Weiner, S. M. (2004). Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22(2), 129-162.	Hansen, B. E. (1996). Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 12(3), 386-414.
Aliasnamen	LP-IR, Multi-horizon regression	GVAR, Multi-country VAR	Panel-VAR with regime switching
Verwandt	3	3	3
Zusammenfassung	Local Projections (LP) is a semi-parametric method for estimating impulse responses directly via multi-horizon regressions, bypassing VAR-model specification. Introduced by Jorda (2005), it projects outcomes h periods ahead onto current shocks and lags, producing impulse-response functions without assuming a particular lag structure or VAR order. This flexibility has made it the dominant approach in applied macroeconomics for measuring policy effects and shock transmission.	Global VAR (GVAR) is a large-scale macroeconomic modeling framework linking multiple countries (or regions) via trade and financial channels, allowing shocks in one country to propagate through the global system. Introduced by Pesaran et al. (2004), it solves the curse of dimensionality in international VAR models by estimating country-specific VARs conditional on foreign variables, then solving a system linking all countries. This approach is invaluable for analyzing global spillovers and international policy coordination.	The Threshold Panel VAR extends the standard vector autoregression framework to accommodate regime-switching behavior where relationships change when a threshold variable crosses a critical level. Introduced by Hansen (1996) and applied to panels by Caner and Hansen (2001), it allows different dynamic relationships across regimes (e.g., expansions versus recessions) while exploiting the cross-sectional dimension of panel data. This nonlinear framework captures state-dependent policy effects and economic mechanisms.