Methoden vergleichen

	Laplace-Approximation	Bayes'sche Regression
Fachgebiet	Bayes-Statistik	Bayes-Statistik
Familie	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
Entstehungsjahr	1986	—
Urheber	Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774); Bayesian formalisation: Tierney & Kadane (1986)	—
Typ	Analytical posterior approximation	Bayesian linear model
Wegweisende Quelle	Tierney, L. & Kadane, J. B. (1986). Accurate approximations for posterior moments and marginal densities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81(393), 82–86.	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
Aliasnamen	Laplace's method, saddle-point approximation (Bayesian), second-order Gaussian approximation, LA	bayesian linear regression, probabilistic regression, bayesian regresyon
Verwandt	3	2
Zusammenfassung	The Laplace approximation is a classical analytic technique that replaces an intractable posterior distribution with a multivariate Gaussian centred at the posterior mode, using the curvature of the log-posterior at that mode to set the covariance. Formalised for Bayesian statistics by Tierney and Kadane (1986) in their landmark Journal of the American Statistical Association paper, it provides a fast, deterministic alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo and forms the mathematical core of Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA).	Bayesian regression is a probabilistic version of linear regression that treats the model parameters as uncertain quantities. Instead of returning a single best-fit estimate, it combines prior knowledge with the observed data to produce a full posterior probability distribution for each parameter, from which credible intervals and predictions are read off.