Methoden vergleichen

	Bayes'sche Regression	Markov-Kette Monte Carlo (MCMC)	Methode der kleinsten Quadrate (OLS)
Fachgebiet	Bayes-Statistik	Bayes-Statistik	Ökonometrie
Familie	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	—	—	2019
Urheber	—	—	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Typ	Bayesian linear model	Posterior sampling algorithm	Linear regression
Wegweisende Quelle	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Aliasnamen	bayesian linear regression, probabilistic regression, bayesian regresyon	markov chain monte carlo, MCMC sampling, MCMC (Markov Zinciri Monte Carlo)	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Verwandt	2	3	5
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian regression is a probabilistic version of linear regression that treats the model parameters as uncertain quantities. Instead of returning a single best-fit estimate, it combines prior knowledge with the observed data to produce a full posterior probability distribution for each parameter, from which credible intervals and predictions are read off.	Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a family of computational algorithms for sampling from complex probability distributions, most commonly the posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian inference. Rather than computing posteriors analytically — which is rarely possible for realistic models — MCMC constructs a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target posterior and draws dependent samples from it, enabling full probabilistic inference for virtually any model.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).